Browsing all posts tagged with tips and advice.

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Trading News Events Without Losing Your Shirt

Friday, August 7th, 2009

So how do veteran traders consistently make money when trading news events? They don’t.

A study was done by a good acquaintance of mine (a well-known FX market analyst who appears regularly on CNBC) to determine how often the market actually moves in the direction expected based on whether or not the news (financial data) turned out to be good or bad for the market. Interestingly, but not surprising, the market only moves as expected 50% of the time relative to the actual resulting news release. That means, that no matter how hard you try to analyze which way financial data releases (like the big NFP – Non-farm Payrolls) will push the market you will only have a coin-flip chance of being right. Are you willing to bet your hard-earned money on a coin-flip during some of the most dangerous moments in the market? I’d hope not.

Even though traders like myself don’t necessarily trade the news event, we will trade before a news event and hold positions through the event or be flat and not trade until several minutes after the event. So our job is not to…

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90% Of You Are Doomed To Fail

Sunday, August 2nd, 2009

If you could start you own business with $100,000 that would potentially give you exponential revenue return without having to necessarily work harder or longer hours wouldn’t that be great? Of course, a business opportunity like this would require you to learn the ropes about the industry and how to run a business. And unless you already have direct experience in the industry you’ll need to roll-up your sleeves and put quite a bit of work in at least in the early months to make sure you don’t make too many costly mistakes that might ruin the business. But you will be your own boss and have tremendous earnings potential providing for a very comfortable life if you can grow the business. I think a lot of people would jump at this opportunity if they had the money to try. Wouldn’t you?

What if I told you that in the United States the failure rate of those starting their own small business (any form – home-based, brick & mortar, online, etc.) is an alarming 90% within the first-year of starting? Yes, this is the same statistic cited for those who begin trading for the first time as well. Meaning, that the high failure rate of new traders has nothing to do with the financial markets or trading as an activity itself. It has everything to do with the kind of planning, execution and careful focused effort people put into running their own small business.

My guess is if you put up $100,000 to start your own business in the above example you’d be sure you put in every waking moment to learn-the-ropes and work incredibly hard to avoid making costly mistakes by putting in serious time to make sure you had the proper foundation for making the business a success. The problem is that most people who begin trading for the first time do not look at trading as a business and treat it as something more like a hobby or see it as “easy money”. You are trading against some of the best minds on the planet…the best that money can buy at all the top banks, brokerages and hedge funds. Would you step into the ring with a professional boxer and fight him after having read a few books on boxing and hitting a heavy bag for a few months? Most would laugh and say, “of course not…”

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